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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Palermo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.06 xG and Palermo 0.82 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 0.74 against Palermo attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 38% | Palermo 24%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Palermo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG, Palermo 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights