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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Palermo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.23 xG and Palermo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Palermo attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 30% | Palermo 35%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Palermo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights