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Dominant Juve Stabia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cosenza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Cosenza 3-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.46 xG and Cosenza 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 44% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 27%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 52%, Cosenza 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Cosenza's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights