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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Modena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Modena 0.99 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Modena attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 52%, Modena 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG, Modena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights