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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Mantova 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Mantova 2-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.05 xG and Mantova 0.68 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.74 / defence 0.74 against Mantova attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 40% | Mantova 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Mantova 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Mantova's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG, Mantova 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights