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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Juve Stabia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Juve Stabia 0-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.25 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Frosinone attack 1.42 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 40%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Frosinone 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Frosinone's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG, Frosinone 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights