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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Empoli make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Juve Stabia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.

Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Empoli's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.50 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Trading Data

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 49% versus Empoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 51% | Empoli 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Empoli 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / defence 0.770 | Empoli attack 0.952 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.057. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Juve Stabia games / 15 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 30% | Empoli 19%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 5.26. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.

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