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Shock result as Juve Stabia defy the odds to beat Cremonese 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Cremonese 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.09 xG and Cremonese 1.26 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Cremonese attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 46%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Cremonese's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.49 PPG, Cremonese 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights