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Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Juve Stabia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cittadella beat Juve Stabia 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Cittadella attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 56%, Cittadella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cittadella's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG, Cittadella 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights