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Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cesena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Cesena 2-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.57 xG and Cesena 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cesena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Cesena attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Cesena 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Cesena 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cesena's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG, Cesena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights