Juve Stabia vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Carrarese — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Carrarese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Carrarese 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.56 xG and Carrarese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.954 / defence 0.961 | Carrarese attack 0.965 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Juve Stabia games / 38 Carrarese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 49% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Carrarese 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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