🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 10, as Juve Stabia and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 2.04 xG and Bari 0.75 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Bari attack 0.85 / defence 1.48, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 66% | Draw 22% | Bari 12%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 51%, Bari 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights