Hellas Verona vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Hellas Verona (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Empoli at in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hellas Verona are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Hellas Verona hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Empoli, with 3 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
The historical record gives Hellas Verona a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 51% versus Empoli 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 53% | Empoli 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.96 xG and Empoli 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.287 / defence 1.002 | Empoli attack 1.013 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Hellas Verona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Hellas Verona games / 49 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 53% | Draw 25% | Empoli 22%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 4.55. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 40% | Empoli 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 53% | Draw 25% | Empoli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Hellas Verona 1.96 / Empoli 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.287 / def 1.002 | Empoli attack 1.013 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Empoli xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Empoli kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 March 2027.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Empoli part of?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 53% chance of winning, Empoli a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hellas Verona and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Record (8 meetings): Hellas Verona 4W | Draws 3 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.29) and Empoli's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.98
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.18
1.22
Empoli xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
3%
32.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.22 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 49 games, going 7W 16D 26L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.02 PPG from 49 outings (11W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.76 PPG, Empoli on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 4W 7D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (5W 5D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.20 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 7W 16D 26L in their last 49 games (0.76 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 17D 21L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.76 PPG; Empoli away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 48%, Empoli 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hellas Verona) and 60% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 44% of games; Empoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 56% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hellas Verona's matches and 60% of Empoli's.
Do Hellas Verona and Empoli tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Empoli in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →