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Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Frosinone.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Frosinone 0-3 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.24 xG and Sudtirol 1.35 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Sudtirol attack 0.96 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 31% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 53%, Sudtirol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.93 PPG, Sudtirol 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights