Frosinone 2-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sampdoria at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Sampdoria meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Frosinone haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Sampdoria (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sampdoria haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sampdoria's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sampdoria are 0.70 PPG clear of Frosinone in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 63% and Sampdoria 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 60% | Sampdoria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.08 xG and Sampdoria 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sampdoria attack 1.070 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.213. Data: 0 Frosinone games / 38 Sampdoria games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 26% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 46%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 2.17. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 50% | Sampdoria 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 26% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Frosinone 1.08 / Sampdoria 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sampdoria attack 1.070 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Sampdoria xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Sampdoria kick off?
Frosinone vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Sampdoria?
Frosinone 2 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Frosinone vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Sampdoria part of?
Frosinone vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 26% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Frosinone and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Sampdoria in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (1.07x) against Frosinone's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.54
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.57
1.49
Sampdoria xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
6%
16.98
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.49 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Frosinone have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 8W 11D 19L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. Frosinone haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sampdoria's form line: 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. Sampdoria haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Sampdoria are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Frosinone.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 8W 5D 6L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.34 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Sampdoria in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Pre-Season
Sampdoria
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 8W 11D 19L in their last 38 games (0.92 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.32 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Sampdoria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Frosinone 3-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Sampdoria?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Frosinone, 63% for Sampdoria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Frosinone and 47% for Sampdoria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Frosinone's games and 63% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Frosinone's matches and 47% of Sampdoria's.
Do Frosinone and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Sampdoria finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.08 xG and Sampdoria 1.49 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sampdoria attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 26% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 46%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 60%, Sampdoria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.