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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Frosinone and Pescara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 28, as Frosinone and Pescara drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.26 xG and Pescara 0.93 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Pescara attack 0.86 / defence 1.45, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 67% | Draw 20% | Pescara 13%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 56%, Pescara 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Pescara's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights