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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Frosinone and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone and Modena finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.30 xG and Modena 0.98 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Modena outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.26 / defence 0.94 against Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.75, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 40% | Draw 35% | Modena 24%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 43%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.31 PPG, Modena 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights