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Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Mantova 5-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.59 xG and Mantova 1.04 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mantova landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Mantova attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 48% | Draw 28% | Mantova 23%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Mantova's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights