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Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.15 xG and Juve Stabia 1.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.28 / defence 1.04 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 62% | Draw 22% | Juve Stabia 16%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 44%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.37 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights