🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Frosinone and Empoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone and Empoli finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.94 xG and Empoli 0.83 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Empoli attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 63% | Draw 22% | Empoli 15%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 46%, Empoli 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights