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Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Frosinone.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Frosinone 0-3 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.44 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Cremonese attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 53%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights