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Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cesena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Cesena 3-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.31 xG and Cesena 1.43 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Cesena attack 1.23 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 31% | Draw 33% | Cesena 36%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 42%, Cesena 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cesena's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.26 PPG, Cesena 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights