Frosinone 3-2 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cesena at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Cesena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Cesena at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cesena — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Serie B this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cesena — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Cesena in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 43% versus Cesena 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 36% | Cesena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.83 xG and Cesena 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.649 / defence 1.090 | Cesena attack 0.922 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.095. Frosinone's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Frosinone games / 14 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 24% | Draw 37% | Cesena 39%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Cesena 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 30% | Cesena 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 24% | Draw 37% | Cesena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Frosinone 0.83 / Cesena 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.649 / def 1.090 | Cesena attack 0.922 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Cesena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cesena xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Cesena kick off?
Frosinone vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cesena?
Frosinone 3 - 2 Cesena.
Where is Frosinone vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cesena part of?
Frosinone vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 24% chance of winning, Cesena a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Frosinone and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Cesena in?
Frosinone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Cesena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
24%
4.13
37%
2.69
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Frosinone xG
Total xG
1.93
1.10
Cesena xG
4.13
24%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.10 for Cesena, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 7D 6L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Frosinone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Frosinone's home form reads 0W 4D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 64%.
Defensively: Cesena in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Cesena in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 1W 7D 6L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Cesena have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cesena away?
Cesena's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 0.67 PPG; Cesena away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cesena in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Cesena runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Cesena have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Cesena 2-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Cesena?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 33%, Cesena 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Frosinone and 50% for Cesena.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cesena in 33%; Frosinone have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Frosinone's recent matches and 67% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Frosinone's recent games and 50% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Cesena tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Cesena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Cesena 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Cesena 3-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.83 xG and Cesena 1.10 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cesena outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.65 / defence 1.09 against Cesena attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 24% | Draw 37% | Cesena 39%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 36%, Cesena 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Cesena's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Frosinone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cesena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.