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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Frosinone and Catanzaro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 25, as Frosinone and Catanzaro drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.96 xG and Catanzaro 1.81 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Catanzaro landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.73 / defence 1.41 against Catanzaro attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 18% | Draw 27% | Catanzaro 56%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 55%, Catanzaro 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Catanzaro's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights