Frosinone 0-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Carrarese — All Games: 1W 1D 5L from 7 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.57 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Frosinone at 0.90 PPG versus Carrarese's 0.57. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Carrarese in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 57% versus Carrarese 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 71% | Carrarese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.30 xG and Carrarese 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.706 / defence 1.229 | Carrarese attack 0.873 / defence 1.477. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.128. Frosinone's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.477 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Frosinone games / 7 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 36% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 32%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Carrarese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Carrarese 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 36% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Frosinone 1.30 / Carrarese 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.706 / def 1.229 | Carrarese attack 0.873 / def 1.477 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Carrarese kick off?
Frosinone vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Frosinone 0 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Frosinone vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Carrarese part of?
Frosinone vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 36% chance of winning, Carrarese a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Carrarese in?
Frosinone (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.19
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.51
1.21
Carrarese xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.21 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 5L across 7 games — 0.57 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 0.86 PPG, Carrarese on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Carrarese away?
Frosinone's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 0.75 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Carrarese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Frosinone 3-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Carrarese?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 50%, Carrarese 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Frosinone and 75% for Carrarese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Frosinone's games and 75% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Frosinone's matches and 75% of Carrarese's.
Do Frosinone and Carrarese tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Frosinone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Frosinone 0-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.30 xG and Carrarese 1.21 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.71 / defence 1.23 against Carrarese attack 0.87 / defence 1.48, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 36% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 32%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 71%, Carrarese 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carrarese's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.86 PPG, Carrarese 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.