Empoli vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Sudtirol at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.10 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Empoli, 1 for Sudtirol and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 57% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 45% | Sudtirol 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.10 xG and Sudtirol 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.783 / defence 0.891 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.209. Empoli's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Empoli games / 41 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 37% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 33%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 60% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 37% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Empoli 1.10 / Sudtirol 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.783 / def 0.891 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Empoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sudtirol xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Empoli vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Empoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 37% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Empoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Empoli and Sudtirol in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.78) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.34
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.10
1.00
Sudtirol xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Empoli and 1.00 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 14D 17L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol's form line: 9W 20D 13L from 42 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.12 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (5W 11D 4L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 11D 6L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.93 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 9W 20D 13L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sudtirol away?
Empoli's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.30 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Empoli
0
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Empoli 0-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 65%, Sudtirol 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Empoli and 35% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Empoli's games and 55% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Empoli's recent games and 35% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.