Empoli vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Pisa meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Empoli's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Pisa's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 58% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 46% | Pisa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.27 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.970 / defence 0.891 | Pisa attack 1.129 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Empoli games / 3 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 39% | Draw 27% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 60% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 39% | Draw 27% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Empoli 1.27 / Pisa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.970 / def 0.891 | Pisa attack 1.129 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Empoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Pisa kick off?
Empoli vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Pisa part of?
Empoli vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 39% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Empoli and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Pisa in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.13x) against Empoli's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.65
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Pisa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Empoli and 1.16 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 12D 25L across 41 games — 0.59 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Empoli by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 6W 11D 3L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 1W 8D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.76 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Pisa in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 12D 25L in their last 41 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Pisa away?
Empoli's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.45 PPG; Pisa away: 0.55 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 70%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Empoli) and 70% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Empoli's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Empoli's recent games and 70% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Pisa tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.