Empoli vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Pisa meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Pisa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pisa arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Pisa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.12 xG and Pisa 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.884 / defence 1.261 | Pisa attack 1.058 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Empoli games / 10 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 24% | Draw 28% | Pisa 48%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 2.08. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 60% | Pisa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 24% | Draw 28% | Pisa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Empoli 1.12 / Pisa 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.884 / def 1.261 | Pisa attack 1.058 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pisa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Pisa xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Pisa kick off?
Empoli vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Pisa part of?
Empoli vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Empoli and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Pisa in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.06x) against Empoli's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.14
28%
3.58
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.76
1.64
Pisa xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.43
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Empoli and 1.64 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 11W 16D 21L from 48 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 6W 15D 27L across 48 games — 0.69 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Empoli against 0.69 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 6W 12D 6L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 2W 10D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.92 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Pisa in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 15D 27L in their last 48 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Pisa away?
Empoli's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.25 PPG; Pisa away: 0.67 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 67%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 67% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Empoli's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 67% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Pisa tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.