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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Pescara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Pescara 4-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.46 xG and Pescara 1.13 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pescara outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Pescara attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 29% | Pescara 28%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 52%, Pescara 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Pescara's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Pescara 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights