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Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Modena finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.07 xG and Modena 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Modena attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 34% | Draw 30% | Modena 37%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Modena 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Modena's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.98 PPG, Modena 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights