Empoli 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Cremonese travel to Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 2W 6D 2L at Carlo Castellani — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 1.00 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.77 xG and Cremonese 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.977 / defence 1.003 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.090. Data: 38 Empoli games / 0 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Empoli 56% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Empoli (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 70% | Cremonese 20%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 56% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Empoli 1.77 / Cremonese 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.977 / def 1.003 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Empoli (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cremonese xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Empoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Cremonese?
Empoli 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Empoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Cremonese part of?
Empoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 56% chance of winning, Cremonese a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Empoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Empoli and Cremonese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.92
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.70
0.93
Cremonese xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Empoli and 0.93 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 14D 15L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. Empoli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 0.89 PPG from 38 outings (8W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.08 PPG, Cremonese on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 5W 11D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.84 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Pre-Season
Cremonese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Cremonese away?
Empoli's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.37 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Cremonese runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Empoli's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Empoli
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cremonese?
From 3 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Empoli 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Cremonese?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 74%, Cremonese 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Empoli) and 42% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 74% of Empoli's recent matches and 32% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Empoli's recent games and 42% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Cremonese 1-0 at Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.77 xG and Cremonese 0.93 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 56% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 18%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Cremonese 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.08 PPG, Cremonese 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.