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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie B · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

18:30

Venue

Stadio Carlo Castellani

Competition

Serie B

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Carrarese Win

30%

Empoli

3.30

35%

Draw

2.88

35%

Carrarese

2.87

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.8%

Away win

1 – 0

10.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.19

Empoli xG

Total xG

2.48

1.29

Carrarese xG

30%
35%
35%
EmpoliDrawCarrarese

3.30

30%

Home win

2.88

35%

Draw

2.87

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.84

46%

BTTS No

2.19

Clean Sheet

28%

Empoli

3.63

30%

Carrarese

3.30

Win to Nil

8%

Empoli

11.98

11%

Carrarese

9.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3 10.8 6.9 3.0 1.0 0.2
1 10.0 12.8 8.3 3.6 1.1 0.3
2 5.9 7.7 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
3 2.4 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.194
λ Away (xG) 1.290
Total xG 2.484
League avg home goals 1.298
League avg away goals 1.145
Empoli attack strength 1.041
Empoli defence strength 1.139
Carrarese attack strength 0.988
Carrarese defence strength 0.884
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 4 / 42