Cremonese vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Virtus Entella at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.00 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 46% | Virtus Entella 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.34 xG and Virtus Entella 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.973 / defence 1.297 | Virtus Entella attack 0.773 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.155. Data: 3 Cremonese games / 41 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 41% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 32%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Virtus Entella 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 50% | Virtus Entella 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 41% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cremonese 1.34 / Virtus Entella 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.973 / def 1.297 | Virtus Entella attack 0.773 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Virtus Entella xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella part of?
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 41% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cremonese and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Virtus Entella in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.97) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.72
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Virtus Entella xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.16 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 10D 22L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.05 PPG from 41 outings (10W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.90 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 3W 7D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.40 points per game from 20 outings (1W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 10D 22L in their last 41 games (0.90 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Virtus Entella away?
Cremonese's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.80 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.40 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Virtus Entella 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 30% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 40% of games; Virtus Entella in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 35% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 30% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.