Cremonese 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Venezia at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 30 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Venezia — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.50 PPG versus Venezia's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cremonese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Venezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 1, Venezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play tendencies (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Venezia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.39 xG and Venezia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.046 / defence 0.930 | Venezia attack 1.144 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.166. Data: 38 Cremonese games / 76 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 39% | Draw 30% | Venezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 60% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Thursday 30 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 39% | Draw 30% | Venezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Cremonese 1.39 / Venezia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.046 / def 0.930 | Venezia attack 1.144 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Venezia xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Venezia kick off?
Cremonese vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 30 May 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Venezia?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Cremonese vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Venezia part of?
Cremonese vs Venezia is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 39% chance of winning, Venezia a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cremonese and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Venezia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.05) and Venezia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.36
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.63
1.24
Venezia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.24 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese come into this having played 78 games, going 25W 23D 30L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.60 PPG from 78 outings (36W 17D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.26 PPG, Venezia on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cremonese's home form reads 14W 9D 16L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.31 points per game from 39 outings (14W 9D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.58 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 63%.
Last 78 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 25W 23D 30L in their last 78 games (1.26 PPG), while Venezia have gone 36W 17D 25L in their last 78 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Venezia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.31 PPG; Venezia away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Venezia 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 44%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 54% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 31% of games; Venezia in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cremonese's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 54% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Venezia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Promotion Play-offs - Final, as Cremonese and Venezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.39 xG and Venezia 1.24 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Venezia attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 39% | Draw 30% | Venezia 32%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Venezia 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.26 PPG, Venezia 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.