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Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Sudtirol 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.43 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Sudtirol attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sudtirol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Sudtirol's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights