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Cremonese and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 18, as Cremonese and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.46 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Sampdoria attack 1.22 / defence 1.40, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 36%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sampdoria 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Sampdoria's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.66 PPG, Sampdoria 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights