Cremonese vs Reggiana – Match Report

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Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cremonese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Cremonese 0-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.11 xG and Reggiana 0.99 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reggiana outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 29%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Reggiana's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Reggiana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights