Cremonese vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cremonese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cremonese, 4 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Pisa trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 43% versus Pisa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.26 xG and Pisa 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.967 / defence 1.292 | Pisa attack 1.116 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 4 Cremonese games / 4 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 24% | Pisa 47%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Pisa 2.13. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Pisa lead the H2H ledger, but Cremonese carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 50% | Pisa 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 24% | Pisa 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Cremonese 1.26 / Pisa 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.967 / def 1.292 | Pisa attack 1.116 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Pisa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Pisa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 29% chance of winning, Pisa a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Record (8 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 2 | Pisa 4W.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
29%
3.46
24%
4.16
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.94
1.68
Pisa xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
5%
18.46
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.68 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 9W 11D 22L from 42 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 12D 26L across 42 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.90 PPG, Pisa on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 1W 8D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.76 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.80 PPG; Pisa away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Cremonese and 70% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 40% of games; Pisa in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cremonese's matches and 70% of Pisa's.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.