Cremonese vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Padova make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Padova away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Cremonese against 1.20 for Padova. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Padova 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.36 xG and Padova 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Padova attack 1.022 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Cremonese games / 38 Padova games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 29% | Padova 33%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Padova 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 40% | Padova 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 29% | Padova 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Cremonese 1.36 / Padova 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Padova attack 1.022 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Padova xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Padova kick off?
Cremonese vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Padova part of?
Cremonese vs Padova is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Padova a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cremonese and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Padova in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.85x the league average against Padova's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Padova's attack (1.02x) against Cremonese's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.47
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.62
1.26
Padova xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.26 for Padova, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese's recent record stands at 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 16L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. Padova haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Cremonese against 1.21 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 9L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Pre-Season
Padova
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Padova in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Padova have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Padova away?
Padova's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.84 PPG; Padova away: 1.11 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Padova 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 42% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 37% of games; Padova in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 42% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 42% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Padova tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Padova in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.