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Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.08 xG and Cosenza 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.11 against Cosenza attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Cosenza's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights