Cremonese 0-3 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Modena at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.00 PPG versus Modena's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Modena and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 41% versus Modena 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Modena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.11 xG and Modena 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.875 / defence 1.150 | Modena attack 1.047 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.109. Data: 1 Cremonese games / 39 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Modena 42%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Modena 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 40% | Modena 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Modena 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Cremonese 1.11 / Modena 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.875 / def 1.150 | Modena attack 1.047 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Modena xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Modena kick off?
Cremonese vs Modena kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Modena?
Cremonese 0 - 3 Modena.
Where is Cremonese vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Modena part of?
Cremonese vs Modena is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 31% chance of winning, Modena a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cremonese and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Modena?
Record (4 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 2 | Modena 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Modena in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.88) and Modena's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.68
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.44
1.34
Modena xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.34 for Modena, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 8W 10D 21L from 39 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 14L across 39 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 9L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.26 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Modena in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 21L in their last 39 games (0.87 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.84 PPG; Modena away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Modena in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Modena?
From 5 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Modena have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Cremonese 0-3 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Modena?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Modena 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 37% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 37% of games; Modena in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 47% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 37% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Modena tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Modena in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Cremonese 0-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.11 xG and Modena 1.34 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Modena attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Modena 42%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 44%, Modena 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.