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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 23, as Cremonese and Modena drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.32 xG and Modena 1.07 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Modena 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Modena's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights