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Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Mantova 4-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 2.01 xG and Mantova 1.28 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Mantova attack 0.99 / defence 1.33, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 53% | Draw 24% | Mantova 23%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 54%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights