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Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.25 / defence 1.11 against Juve Stabia attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 53% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 20%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.52 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights