Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Cremonese welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.80 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cremonese register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Juve Stabia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Juve Stabia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Juve Stabia trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 65% versus Juve Stabia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Juve Stabia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.246 / defence 1.106 | Juve Stabia attack 0.728 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.141. Data: 76 Cremonese games / 38 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 53% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 20%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Juve Stabia 5.00. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 90% | Juve Stabia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 53% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Cremonese 1.64 / Juve Stabia 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.246 / def 1.106 | Juve Stabia attack 0.728 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Juve Stabia xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cremonese vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Cremonese 3 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cremonese vs Juve Stabia is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 53% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cremonese and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Juve Stabia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.25x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.66
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.55
0.92
Juve Stabia xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
4%
25.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.92 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 16W 13D 11L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Juve Stabia's form line: 16W 13D 11L from 40 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.52 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 9D 6L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.12 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 16W 13D 11L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 16W 13D 11L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Juve Stabia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.53 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cremonese at 74%, Juve Stabia at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 42% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cremonese's games and 58% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 42% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Juve Stabia 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.64 xG and Juve Stabia 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juve Stabia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.25 / defence 1.11 against Juve Stabia attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 53% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 20%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.52 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.