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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Cittadella share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese and Cittadella finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.40 xG and Cittadella 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cittadella outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.25 / defence 1.05 against Cittadella attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 45% | Draw 30% | Cittadella 25%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 54%, Cittadella 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Cittadella's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights