Cremonese vs Cesena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Cesena travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cesena — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.20 PPG, Cesena 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Cesena and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Cesena trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Cesena 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Cesena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.27 xG and Cesena 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.837 / defence 0.965 | Cesena attack 0.782 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Cremonese games / 48 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 32% | Cesena 25%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Cesena 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Cesena 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 42% | Draw 32% | Cesena 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Cremonese 1.27 / Cesena 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.837 / def 0.965 | Cesena attack 0.782 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cesena xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cesena kick off?
Cremonese vs Cesena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cesena part of?
Cremonese vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 42% chance of winning, Cesena a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cesena?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Cesena 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Cesena in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Cesena (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Cesena's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.08
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Cesena xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.93 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 11W 13D 24L from 48 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 18L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.96 PPG, Cesena on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 8D 11L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cesena's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.17 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cesena in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Cesena have gone 14W 16D 18L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cesena away?
Cesena's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.96 PPG; Cesena away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cesena in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Cesena runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cesena?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Cesena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Cesena 2-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Cesena 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 46% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 42% of games; Cesena in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 54% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 46% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cesena tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cesena in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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