Cremonese vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 43% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Carrarese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.32 xG and Carrarese 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.969 / defence 1.293 | Carrarese attack 0.819 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.180. Data: 4 Cremonese games / 42 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 35%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Carrarese 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Carrarese 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 27% | Carrarese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cremonese 1.32 / Carrarese 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.969 / def 1.293 | Carrarese attack 0.819 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Carrarese kick off?
Cremonese vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Carrarese part of?
Cremonese vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Carrarese a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cremonese and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Carrarese in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Carrarese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.97) and Carrarese's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.77
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.57
1.25
Carrarese xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.25 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 9W 11D 22L from 42 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 17L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.90 PPG, Carrarese on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 4W 7D 10L from 21 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 3W 7D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Carrarese away?
Cremonese's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.90 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Carrarese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Carrarese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 52%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cremonese) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 38% of games; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Cremonese's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cremonese's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Carrarese tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.