Cremonese vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.00 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.16 xG and Carrarese 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.837 / defence 0.964 | Carrarese attack 0.814 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Cremonese games / 48 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 28%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Carrarese 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 1.16 / Carrarese 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.837 / def 0.964 | Carrarese attack 0.814 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Carrarese xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Carrarese kick off?
Cremonese vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Carrarese part of?
Cremonese vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Carrarese a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Carrarese in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.84) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.63
34%
2.98
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.12
0.97
Carrarese xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.97 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 11W 13D 24L from 48 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 20L across 48 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.96 PPG, Carrarese on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 8D 11L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Carrarese away?
Cremonese's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.96 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carrarese in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Carrarese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Carrarese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Carrarese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 54% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 42% of games; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 58% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 54% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Carrarese tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.