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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 20, as Cremonese and Brescia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.91 xG and Brescia 0.84 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Brescia attack 0.72 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 33% | Draw 37% | Brescia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Brescia's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights