Cremonese vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Avellino at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Avellino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Avellino are 0.60 PPG clear of Cremonese in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Avellino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 46% | Avellino 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.14 xG and Avellino 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.966 / defence 1.293 | Avellino attack 0.935 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Cremonese games / 41 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 26% | Avellino 43%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Avellino 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Avellino 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 26% | Avellino 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Cremonese 1.14 / Avellino 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.966 / def 1.293 | Avellino attack 0.935 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Avellino (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Avellino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Avellino kick off?
Cremonese vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Avellino part of?
Cremonese vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 31% chance of winning, Avellino a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cremonese and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Avellino in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Avellino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.97x the league average against Avellino's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.94x) against Cremonese's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
31%
3.26
26%
3.78
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.54
1.40
Avellino xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.40 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 9W 10D 22L from 41 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 16L across 41 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Avellino by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Avellino's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.17 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Avellino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Avellino in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 10D 22L in their last 41 games (0.90 PPG), while Avellino have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Avellino away?
Avellino's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.80 PPG; Avellino away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Avellino 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 40% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 40% of games; Avellino in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Avellino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 45% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 40% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Avellino tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Avellino in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.