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Cittadella cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cittadella beat Reggiana 3-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.72 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cittadella beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.66 / defence 0.89 against Reggiana attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cittadella 24% | Draw 39% | Reggiana 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 42%, Reggiana 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cittadella's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Reggiana's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.11 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights